Weather Patterns Comparison: January to June 2023 vs. 2024
Temperature:
- 2023: The early part of 2023 was marked by significant drought conditions, with 46.3% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing drought. However, atmospheric rivers and the summer monsoon brought above-normal precipitation to the Southwest, reducing drought levels significantly by May 2023 (NOAA NCEI).
- 2024: The first half of 2024 saw continued influence from El Niño, contributing to well above-average temperatures across much of the Southwest. In particular, there was a notable increase in temperatures from southern Texas through the Southwest and into the central and northern Rockies (Climate.gov) (DTNPF).
Precipitation:
- 2023: Above-normal precipitation in late winter and spring recharged major reservoirs and reduced drought coverage. The precipitation brought by atmospheric rivers and the monsoon played a crucial role in this recovery (NOAA NCEI).
- 2024: In contrast, the early months of 2024 experienced a mix of precipitation patterns. While the winter and early spring saw beneficial rains, potential La Niña conditions developing in late summer could reduce monsoon showers, possibly leading to renewed drought conditions and higher temperatures later in the year (Climate.gov) (Climate Prediction Center).
Comparative Crop Sales: 2023 vs. 2024
Corn and Soybeans:
- 2023: Crop sales in 2023 benefited from improved soil moisture due to above-normal precipitation in the spring, which helped boost yields.
- 2024: Early 2024 showed promise with good soil moisture levels. However, the potential development of La Niña and reduced monsoon activity later in the year could negatively impact crop yields, especially for corn and soybeans, which are sensitive to summer precipitation and temperatures (DTNPF).
Wheat:
- 2023: Wheat benefited significantly from the reduced drought conditions in the early months, leading to robust yields.
- 2024: The winter and early spring of 2024 provided favorable conditions for winter wheat, with good soil moisture levels. However, uncertainty remains for the summer months, which could affect harvests if drought conditions re-emerge (DTNPF).
Berries, Citrus, and Apples:
- 2023: Favorable weather conditions in spring 2023 supported good yields for berries, citrus, and apples.
- 2024: Early 2024’s above-average temperatures and sufficient rainfall helped maintain good conditions for these crops. However, potential late-year drought conditions could impact later harvests (Climate.gov).
Dairy:
- 2023: Dairy production in 2023 was stable, benefiting from the improved pasture conditions due to increased precipitation.
- 2024: Dairy production in 2024 could face challenges if late-year drought conditions reduce forage availability (DTNPF).
Nuts, Fruit, Tomatoes, and Peppers:
- 2023: Improved water availability in 2023 led to good yields for nuts, fruit, tomatoes, and peppers.
- 2024: While the start of 2024 was promising, the potential for increased drought later in the year could stress these crops, affecting overall production and sales (Climate.gov) (DTNPF).
Overall, while the first half of 2024 started with favorable conditions similar to 2023, the looming possibility of La Niña later in the year introduces significant uncertainty, particularly regarding precipitation and temperature patterns, which could adversely affect agricultural yields and sales.
