This is the voice of our farmers. With help from ChatGPT and Deep Research… References available upon request.
7. “Will there be enough water for my farm, or am I going to be forced to cut back because of drought and water regulations?”
Context: Especially in the Southwest and Western states, water availability is a life-or-death issue for agriculture. Years of drought, declining aquifers, and new regulatory limits are converging to constrain how much water farmers can use. In California’s Central Valley, for instance, farmers have already fallowed hundreds of thousands of acres during recent droughts, and things could get worse: up to 900,000 acres of California farmland may be forced out of production due to water scarcity in the coming years.
This is driven by both climate (hotter, drier conditions reducing snowmelt and reservoir levels) and policy – California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) is beginning to cap groundwater pumping to stop aquifer depletion. Similarly, in the Desert Southwest (Arizona and parts of Nevada), water cuts on the Colorado River are reducing supplies for irrigation. Farmers are asking bluntly: “Will I have to permanently cut my acreage or switch crops because of water cuts?”
In places like Arizona, some farmers are already uprooting orchards or leaving fields empty because their Colorado River allotments were curtailed. Even in the High Plains (Texas, Kansas, New Mexico), the Ogallala Aquifer’s decline is a huge worry – wells are going dry or pumping is becoming too expensive, forcing questions about the future of water-intensive crops like corn or cotton there. This concern also touches farmers growing high-value but thirsty crops – California almonds, for example, need a lot of water, and those growers are debating if they should plant less.
Regional variations: The Southwest’s question is about long-term survival in a drying climate, whereas the Southeast might have the opposite worry (too much water at times, but even there, periodic droughts occur). Across the West, though, the theme is consistent: farmers are looking for solutions like new water infrastructure, policy changes, or switching to drought-tolerant practices. They are keenly aware that without water, there is no farming – hence this question’s urgency.
8. “Where am I going to find the workers I need – and how can I afford the ever-rising farm wages?”
Context: Labor shortages have plagued U.S. agriculture for years, and it’s reaching a breaking point in some areas. Farmers who rely on seasonal labor (like fruit and vegetable growers in the West, Southwest, and Southeast) are finding it harder each year to hire enough hands to pick crops or work in packing sheds. Domestic rural populations are shrinking, and immigration rules have tightened, leaving many jobs unfilled.
Even farms that use the H-2A guest worker visa program are facing rapidly rising labor costs. The Department of Labor recently reclassified certain farm jobs, pushing H-2A wages even higher. As a result, U.S. agricultural labor costs in 2025 are projected to reach a record $53 billion. Many growers saw mandated pay rates jump 10% or more in the past year, depending on their state.
For example, the Adverse Effect Wage Rate (AEWR) – the minimum wage for H-2A farm workers – increased by about 6% in states like Washington, which already had some of the highest wages. Labor-intensive farms (like those growing fresh fruits, vegetables, or nursery plants) spend up to 40% of their production costs on labor, so these wage hikes hit hard.
Regional examples: In California and Arizona, farmers are turning to automation where possible (e.g. robotic harvesters), but not all tasks can be mechanized. In the Southeast (e.g. Georgia’s vegetable fields or Florida’s citrus groves), growers worry about immigration crackdowns – “businesses that depend on immigrant labor say they’ve lost workers despite using E-Verify,” as seen in the Carolinas.
Farmers are asking if immigration reform might relieve some pressure (such as expanding the H-2A program for year-round work on dairy farms, or legalizing more of the existing workforce). They also wonder if they can pass on these higher labor costs to buyers – often, the answer is no in global commodity markets.
Another facet is competition from imports: American farmers note that countries like Mexico can produce fruits and vegetables much cheaper due to lower wages (sometimes “one-tenth the hourly” wage of U.S. workersfb.org). This makes U.S. farmers fear they’ll lose market share if they raise prices to pay labor. In sum, this question reflects a mix of operational and policy concerns – it’s about day-to-day ability to harvest crops and long-term viability if labor remains scarce and expensive.
9. “What new regulations are coming down the pike, and how will they affect my farm?”
Context: Farmers are keeping a wary eye on federal and state regulations that could alter how they operate. A range of new rules – from environmental regulations to food safety to animal welfare – are in play, and while many farmers support reasonable regulations, they worry about the cost and feasibility of compliance.
One major area is environmental regulation: for instance, rules about water quality (like the definition of “Waters of the U.S.” under the Clean Water Act) can affect what farmers must do to protect streams and wetlands on their land. Pesticide and herbicide regulations are also tightening. In 2024, multiple states and the EPA moved to restrict certain chemicals; “herbicide bans and new application restrictions” were introduced to protect farmworkers and pollinators. While beneficial for safety, these changes “made it more difficult for farmers to manage crops”, especially as weeds develop resistance – farmers ask what tools they’ll have left if popular herbicides are phased out.
Climate-related regulations are another aspect: some states are discussing limits on methane emissions from livestock or encouraging fertilizer use reductions to curb nitrous oxide. Livestock and poultry farmers are particularly attuned to animal welfare regulations. California’s Proposition 12 (enacted in 2022) and similar laws require larger housing space for breeding pigs and egg-laying hens. The result? Many hog farmers in the Midwest had to invest in new facilities or risk losing access to the California market; some are unsure if it’s worth the cost.
In the egg sector, “California’s cage-free requirements” (along with an avian flu outbreak) meant fewer eggs qualified to be sold in California, leading to egg prices in California far above the national average. Farmers wonder if more states will adopt such laws and how they can remain competitive. Additionally, food safety and traceability rules (like the FDA’s Produce Safety rule) require new record-keeping and infrastructure that small farmers find burdensome.
The regional variations here involve which regulations bite hardest: a vegetable farmer in Arizona might be more worried about water usage rules, a hog farmer in Iowa about animal confinement rules, a grain farmer in the Midwest about potential fertilizer runoff rules. The common theme, however, is the uncertainty about policy: farmers are asking for clarity and fairness – what rules are coming, and will there be support to help us comply without putting us out of business?
10. “Is ‘get big or get out’ my only option? Can small family farms like mine survive, and should I try something different – like organic, direct marketing, or new crops – to make it?”
Context: This question speaks to the heart of farming communities. Consolidation has been a long-running trend in agriculture – larger farms are growing and smaller farms often struggle to compete. Recent economic pressures have only accelerated this. As one agricultural economist observed, “large farms can ride out struggles, but smaller farms are more likely to go bankrupt from increases in costs and lower market prices.”
In early 2025, farm bankruptcies surged, and many of those were small to mid-sized family farms that just couldn’t cover their expenses when commodity prices fell. This reality has many farmers – particularly those running modest operations – questioning their future.
In the Northeast and Southeast, where farms tend to be smaller (and often more diversified), some are exploring direct-to-consumer sales, agritourism, or niche markets (farmers’ markets, farm-to-table restaurants) as ways to improve income. Others consider switching to specialty or organic production to earn a premium. However, the organic route has become less of a silver bullet than it once was: organic commodity crop prices and premiums have dropped recently, and average net returns for organic field crops hit record lows in 2024. Over the past five years, the number of organic farms in the U.S. actually declined ~5%, as some organic growers gave up on the sector due to thin profits. This has farmers asking whether diversification or value-added ventures can truly pay off.
For example, a Midwestern corn grower might consider planting a few acres of specialty non-GMO corn for a local tortilla company, or a dairyman might start processing cheese on-farm to capture more value. Young farmers and those in regenerative agriculture circles talk about emerging opportunities like carbon credit programs or supplying the growing organic food market (projected to keep expanding in sales). But these often require new skills and investments, and the returns are uncertain. The phrase “get big or get out” – famously coined in the 1970s – feels uncomfortably relevant again.
Farmers are effectively asking if the traditional family farm can survive as-is, or if they must either scale up dramatically, specialize, or find off-farm income to subsidize the farm. Across all regions, this soul-searching is occurring: from New England dairy farms to Midwest grain farms to West Coast vegetable farms. The future of the small and mid-sized farm is in question, and that makes this one of the most pressing, heartfelt questions farmers are voicing right now.
